NFL Mock Draft (3/1/2007)

1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
It seems like a foregone conclusion now that the Raiders and Al Davis will take Russell with their top pick. Russell came in a few pounds overweight to the combine but I don’t think that is enough to scare the Raiders away. Calvin Johnson’s size, speed, and height probably make the Raiders salivate and there would be room for him if they move Moss, but I just don’t see the Raiders moving that direction.

2. Detroit Lions: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
Johnson is still the best player on the board, but with Roy Williams and Mike Furrey already locked into deals and reports that the Lions are interested in acquiring Kevin Curtis make taking Johnson unlikely. Thomas is a safer pick than Quinn for the Lions and he fills a hole for them as well.

3. Cleveland Browns: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
The Reuben Droughns era is all but over now. Adrian Peterson has all the tools necessary to be successful in the NFL including passion for the game (note how he came back to play in the Fiesta Bowl after his collarbone injury) and speed (ran a 4.4 40 time at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis). The Browns could be tempted to take Brady Quinn but they are partially invested in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
Tampa is the big winner in the draft. They get the best player on everyone’s board in a position that they need. Johnson is 6’5” 239 pounds and ran the 40 in 4.35 seconds on borrowed shoes. He also doesn’t bring any baggage in the form of ‘me first attitude’, a police record, or laziness. He is this year’s can’t miss pick.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
Arizona would love for Joe Thomas to fall into their hands but that scenario appears less likely each passing day. They could take the next best tackle, Levi Brown, I say they grab the best pass rushing defensive end. Adams is currently a speck ahead of Anderson, but that could change when Anderson has his pro day at Arkansas. Alan Branch is another possibility, but they spend and early pick on DT Gabe Watson out of Michigan last year, so I don’t see them doing something similar this year.

6. Washington Redskins: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
After picking #6 Washington won’t pick again until round 5…..no that wasn’t a typo …they have traded away their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick!! Expect the Redskins to shop this pick heavily in the hopes of getting more day one picks for a team that has more than enough holes to fill. If they are unable to find a trade partner then I see Anderson as the pick here. Washington had the fewest sacks of any team last year, so getting a premier pass rusher is a pretty good idea.

7. Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU
Minnesota might show interest in Adams or Anderson should they be available but after spending first round picks the last 2 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. Minnesota was ranked #1 against the run last year, but 31st against the pass. So, I see them upgrading their secondary. Also grabbing a WR like Ted Ginn Jr. would fill a need, but I can see the Vikings being gun-shy after drafting another WR at #7 hasn’t worked out so well (Troy Williamson, 2004). And QB could fit the bill as well, however similar to Cleveland, Minnesota is partially invested in Tavaris Jackson which leads me to believe that they will pass on Quinn.

8. Houston Texans: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
Gary Kubiak is saying all the rights things about David Carr being Houston’s starting QB, but I don’t believe it. I think Carr is dealt to the team the gives the best offer (3rd round pick reportedly is the asking price). Houston fans have given Carr all they have and they are finished with him and Texans’ management realizes this. It would be silly for Houston to pass up a potential franchise QB at #8. If Quinn is gone or they choose to pass on him then left tackle Levi Brown might hear his name called. It’s no secret that Houston has problems protecting the QB. Carr was sacked a league high 68 times in 2005. Things improved in 2006 when Carr was only sacked 41 times, eighth most in the league.

9. Miami Dolphins: Levi Brown, OT Texas
There is much talk about the Dolphins and their interest in Brady Quinn, and I believe if he were available then the Dolphins will scoop him up. But I don’t see that being the case and if not then the Dolphins will be relying on Daunte Culpepper. If Culpepper is going to lead this team then they need some big men in front of him to pass protect. Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006.

10. Atlanta Falcons: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
In 2006 Atlanta’s weaknesses were secondary play, pass protection, and wide receiver play. And with the impending departure of Patrick Kerney, defensive end is about to become a need. I think the Falcons jump on either Adams or Anderson if available or they could take a shot on Adam Carriker or Jarvis Moss at this point. I also think Landry would be a great fit into what they do if he is available. Nelson can move into the starting lineup along with DeAngelo Hall, Lawyer Milloy and Jimmy Williams (playing corner). Or the Falcons could go after a CB like Leon Hall and move Jimmy Williams to the safety position. New coach Bobby Petrino has been open about his desire to make the offensive line bigger as well, so Levi Jones would not be out of the question with the 10th pick. I highly doubt the Falcons will use this pick to go after a WR though, General Manager has spent the Falcons last 2 first round picks on WRs Michael Jenkins (2004) and Roddy White (2005).

11. San Francisco 49ers: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Branch is a top 10 talent that slips because the teams ahead of San Francisco have bigger needs to fill. The 49ers struggled stopping the run at times last year and Branch could come in and start right away. Much of what San Francisco will do in the draft will be determined by what they do in free agency. Wide receiver is still a need for this squad and if they don’t land a player like Donte Stallworth or Drew Bennett in free agency then they could look to add a WR like Ted Ginn Jr. or Dwayne Jarrett in this spot.

12. Buffalo Bills: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Hall makes it back-to-back Wolverines picked in the first half of the draft. Hall saw his stock fall after the finish of the college season, but has rebounded after a nice showing at the combine. Nate Clements will get paid handsomely in free agency by some team other than the Bills, so expect the Bills to fill that hole with this pick.

13. St. Louis Rams: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. Okoye is a phenom at age 19 and should help to improve the Rams’ biggest weakness.

14. Carolina Panthers: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
This is the first big reach of the draft. Olsen was considered by most to be a 2nd round pick before the combine, but after running a blistering 4.45 time in the 40, Olsen has seen his stock rise to the first round. Carolina was interested in signing TE Tony Gonzalez this off-season, but the Chiefs negotiated a long-term deal with him. With little TE talent available in free agency, the Panthers grab the best available in the draft. The Panthers could also use a wide receiver to replace the possible retiring Keyshawn Johnson, or they would be interested in either of the top 2 safeties if they were available at 14.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
New Head Coach Mike Tomlin will likely use early picks to solidify his defense. The big question is whether he will continue to use the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher ran or if he will switch to the 4-3 that Tomlin ran while the defensive coordinator in Minnesota. Regardless of which defense you play though, all defenses need good corners and Pittsburgh was much worse against the pass (20th) than they were the run (3rd). Revis is a local kid that played at the University of Pittsburgh so fans will be familiar with his name. Picking him at #15 could be a little high depending on his performance at the Pitt pro day.

16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB California
Green Bay will be in the market for a front line running back if they choose not to bring back Ahman Green. Lynch is clearly the #2 RB in the year’s draft class. He brings speed and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield proficiently. If Green in on board with Green Bay at draft time then the Packers may choose to take the best defender left on the board, Adam Carriker.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
Jacksonville is a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. On defense they ranked high in all 3 major categories: points (4th), rushing (4th), and passing (10th). On offense they were solid accept for the passing game; points (9th), rushing (10th), and passing (24th). They have spent 2 first round picks on wide receivers: Reggie Williams and Matt Jones while both have flashed signs of progress there has not been enough consistency.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again.

19. Tennessee Titans: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
Tennessee already had eyes on adding a cornerback before the most recent misbehavior by Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones. This last off field encounter may force the Titans to cut ties with him, which would leave a big hole to fill in the secondary. So, Aaron Ross could easily be the pick here. However, the Titans also have a need to add a playmaker at WR. Drew Bennett may leave in free agency in there are plenty of wide receivers in the draft that would make sense with this pick: Dwayne Jarrett was a standout at USC and played under offensive coordinator Norm Chow. Robert Meacham starred on Saturdays his past fall with the University of Tennessee and had a good showing at the combine. I’ll go with Jarrett for now, but we’ll have to watch closely at his pro day to see how his 40 time compares.

20. New York Giants: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Starting corner is in the twilight of his career and Ross would do well to not start as a rookie and spend a year behind Madison learning. New York has made it no secret that they are looking to add a RB to compliment Brandon Jacobs, so if they are unable to make a deal for a runner like McGahee or Michael Turner and if Marshawn Lynch happens to be available then expect New York to pull the trigger on him.

21. Denver Broncos: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Denver has had a difficult off-season, losing 2 teammates: Darrent Williams and Damien Nash. Denver could choose to use their first round pick on cornerback to help offset the devastating loss of Williams. But the value right now is with the defensive end Carriker who has started to slide a bit. The Broncos are pursuing DE Patrick Kerney and CB Dre Bly in free agency. If they land but not the other expect them to use this pick to fill the void.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Griffin, S Texas
Look for Dallas to add either a wide receiver of a safety. The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. Safety Roy Williams was a pro bowler, but was beaten in coverage far too many times. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. If they choose to overlook the secondary, then look for a player like Dwayne Bowe to go here. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
It is no secret what position has been the weakest for the Chiefs this decade. In a draft where there will be plenty of quality wide receivers available late in the first round, I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than pick the highest one left on their board. The selection of Bowe will be the third LSU Tiger selected in the first round

24. New England Patriots: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
The Patriots are known to not draft based on need, but based on the best player available. Sometimes, those two philosophies line up and the best player available fills a need for your team. Both Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi are on the back ends of their careers and the award winning linebacker from Penn State will fit in nice with New England. The Patriots may also look to the safety position since they are thin there and Rodney Harrison has not been able to stay healthy the last 2 seasons.

25. New York Jets: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
The Jets spend last year’s draft upgrading the offensive line and I expect to see them spend the ’07 draft working on the other side of the ball. Moss is a speed rusher that showcased his talents in the National Championship game against Ohio State. If Greg Olsen doesn’t get scooped up early you may see the Jets scoop him up as another weapon for Chad Pennington.

26. Philadelphia: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Donte Stallworth will likely leave Philly via free agency and that will leave the cupboard pretty bare for Donovan McNabb. Meacham would come in and compete with Hank Baskett for the starting WR job opposite of Reggie Brown. Also, expect Philadelphia to take a look at safety Michael Griffin if he is available.

27. New Orleans Saints: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Houston saw his draft stock skyrocket after turning in a 4.32 time in the 40 at the combine. This could be a little early for him but teams in love with speed will be looking to jump on the guy who posted the fastest 40 time during the combine weekend.

28. New England Patriots: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
Spencer fits the New England 3-4 system. New England already has another Boilermaker playing the 3-4 outside linebacker position—Roosevelt Colvin has been a productive member of that defense. The Patriots may choose to address the wide receiver position with the recent injury of Chad Jackson…Sidney Rice could be a fit here.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Michael Bush, RB Louisville
Bush was expected to be a first round pick before he had the season ending knee injury. He has a lot to prove, but if he shows well at his pro day then he could move up into the first round in a draft that is weak at running back. Baltimore has cut Jamal Lewis. They may choose to resign him, but if not then they’ll be in the market for a running back and the big, bruiser Bush fits the mold.

30. San Diego Chargers: Sidney Rice, WR South Carolina
There is no team in the league with fewer holes than San Diego. Wide receiver is a need that sticks out. Vincent Jackson flashed some brilliance at the end of the season, but even if he becomes a quality receiver then they are still looking for someone to play opposite of him.

31. Chicago Bears: Justin Blalock, G Texas
Blalock could be the 4th Texas Longhorn to be drafted in the first round in April. Drafting guards isn’t glorious but games are won at the line of scrimmage.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
The defending champs stand to lose several key players in free agency: RB Dominic Rhodes, LB Cato June and CB Nick Harper among others. Joseph Addai is ready to step up and carry the load at RB and Indy has been investing first day picks into defensive backs the last several years, so I think he pick here is to replace June. Timmons ran the 40 at 4.52 at the combine and Dungy loves quick linebackers that can fly to the ball.

Position Recap: Conference Recap:
QB – 2 SEC – 9
RB – 3 Big 12 – 6
WR – 6 Big 10 – 6
TE – 1 ACC – 4
OL – 3 Big East – 3
DE – 5 Pac 10 – 3
DT – 2 Independent – 1
LB – 3
CB – 4
S – 3