Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Hypothetical predictions....

"The qualifier "could" runs through many bad predictions. Practically anything "could" happen. Jennifer Lopez "could" go out to dinner with me; Congress "could" set aside partisan bickering in the name of the national interest. Gil Brandt, NFL.com: Houston "is a team that could surprise people [and] make the playoffs." Clark Judge, CBS Sportsline: Drew Henson "has shown signs of becoming the quarterback who could figure into the future of the Cowboys." Henson was waived in training camp. Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated: Craig Nall "could follow Matt Hasselbeck's lead and go from being Brett Favre's backup to the Pro Bowl." Nall was third string all season for the Bills and did not appear in a game. Bonus: Megabucks consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton predicted bird flu "could" cause the entire Internet to shut down." - Gregg Easterbrook in Tuesday Morning Quarterback

I would just like to point out that I beat Easterbrook to the punch in complaining about hypothetical predictions. My rant along these lines was posted here Feb. 8th, in the That Time of Year.... post. Glad to know that I'm beating a writer I respect as much as Easterbrook to the punch.

1 comment:

Hanson said...

I do agree that it is funny to read the could predictions - they are ambiguous and the writer really can't be wrong - similar to a weatherman say there is a 40% chance of rain.
But I find a problem in all your ranting. You pick on writers who come with weak responses like something 'could' happen. But you also laugh at guys and jokingly say guys can predict the future when they come with a strong opinion.
For instance in your "That time of year" post you blast a writer for saying that the Texans will get rid of David Carr, will sign Jake Plummer and will draft a young QB. You mock him for 'seeing the future' but would you prefer he say, "the Texans could get rid of David Carr, could sign Jake Plummer and could draft a QB"?
Those are the options I see right now, which is the lesser of 2 evils?
My guess is that what you are really seeking is fact such as, "Texans coach Gary Kubiak reported that he has interest in signing Jake Plummer if he were on the market and looking at drafting a day one QB to groom under Plummer" The problem is that there just isn't that type of infomration coming out right now. Football is so big that it has become a 12 month sport, and there just isn't 12 months worth of information to report. So we are stuck with opinions (some lame, some not) from writers in markets around the country.